The Return of Obi-Wan

Jim Geraghty has a friend who is a longtime GOP political operative known only to the rest of us as "Obi-Wan" (he doesn't want to be identified). During the 2004 campaign when this blog was just getting started I watched Jim's site very carefully throughout the campaign and found Obi-Wan's counsel very wise indeed.

Obi-Wan is back and says that despite all the gloom over the current polling, it ain't over yet and there are still plenty of factors in McCain's favor:

"Any pessimism now is dumbness," he said as he appeared to me recently. "A few weeks ago every swing state was coming McCain's way and he had a national lead. And some polls showed him four points and six points behind in New Jersey and New York. And now all that has gone away? Politics doesn't work like that. The American people, even in the midst of an unprecented economic crisis, don't react like that for any sustained period. Those patterns can reassert themselves."

Obi Wan talks to other Republicans, and back in July when Obama was way ahead and Republicans gloomy he said that the whole picture was likely to change dramtically by early september and McCain "would have a lead that lasted longer than just convention bounce."

He says some underlying factors — some new and some old — are still at work and helpful to McCain.

You can read the lengthy post here. Lots for political junkies to chew on.