Who Didn't Show Up on Nov. 4th?

Karl Rove has an analysis of the election on The Wall Street Journal, and this paragraph was interesting:

Then there were those who didn't show up. There were 4.1 million fewer Republicans voting this year than in 2004. Some missing Republicans had turned independent or Democratic for this election. But most simply stayed home. Ironically for a campaign that featured probably the last Vietnam veteran to run for president, 2.7 million fewer veterans voted. There were also 4.1 million fewer voters who attend religious services more than once a week. Americans aren't suddenly going to church less; something was missing from the campaign to draw out the more religiously observant.

Those religious people are likely to be conservative Republicans, and the religious right was very much uninspired by John McCain. We saw something similar in 1998 when a great many conservatives, angered by the Republicans in Congress, almost handed control of the House back to the Dems by staying home.

Rove also suggests that 2010 should be a better year for the GOP, assuming they handle the next two years correctly:

History will favor Republicans in 2010. Since World War II, the out-party has gained an average of 23 seats in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate in a new president's first midterm election. Other than FDR and George W. Bush, no president has gained seats in his first midterm election in both chambers.

Since 1966, the incumbent party has lost an average of 63 state senate and 262 state house seats, and six governorships, in a president's first midterm election. That 2010 is likely to see Republicans begin rebounding just before redistricting is one silver lining in an otherwise dismal year for the GOP.

In politics, good years follow bad years. Republicans and Democrats have experienced both during the past 15 years. A GOP comeback, while certainly possible, won't be self-executing and automatic. It will require Republicans to be skillful at both defense (opposing Mr. Obama on some issues) and offense (creating a compelling agenda that resonates with voters). And it will require leaders to emerge who give the right public face to the GOP. None of this will be easy. All of this will be necessary.

If Obama gets off to the kind of start Clinton did, 2010 will be a big year for the GOP. However, he's flying so high right now and has so much support in the political media that it will be hard for the GOP's message to break through.