Obama's Carbon Tax May Have to Wait

It looks like Obama's plan to create massive new taxes on carbon, otherwise known as "cap-and-trade", will have to wait:

The House may not vote on a climate change bill this year, according to a high-ranking Democratic leader.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told The Hill on Monday that leaders could opt not to bring a climate measure to the floor if the bill has little chance of passing the Senate.

Democrats, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), had previously indicated they would pass a climate bill through the House by the August congressional recess.

The competing allegiances of Van Hollen — charged with leading Democrats into what is arguably their most challenging election cycle since 1994 and serving as a policy hand to Pelosi — were on display during his interview with The Hill.

Van Hollen, 50, became the highest-ranking House Democrat to say that even if an agreement is reached, the House may not vote on a cap-and-trade bill if the bill appears to have little hope of clearing the upper chamber.

“The first thing we need to do is see whether we can come together around a consensus position in the committees in the House, and that’s what we’re working on. And then, of course, if we were able to arrive at that, the question is whether you would take it to the floor, or do you wait to see if anything develops on the Senate side,” Van Hollen said.

“The chances of doing cap-and-trade in the Senate are much more difficult. We recognize that,” he added.

I doubt if 2010 will be a better year for a massive new tax hike. For one thing we'll have another year's evidence that the earth is cooling, not warming. Secondly, 2010 will be a midterm election year. During the second year of a presidential the party in the White House almost always loses seats, and often quite a few of them. Imposing a massive tax on virtually every activity in the country would not be a platform the Dems would want to campaign on.

Bill Clinton tried to nationalize health care during his first two years and his party lost control of the House and Senate in the first midterm. They didn't get either one back for the rest of his term.

I don't know that 2010 will be another 1994, but the incredible spending and debt being created by Obama and the Dems are giving the GOP some ready-made campaign issues. If they jam national health care down everyone's throats and try and push cap-and-trade, it could be a tough year for the Dems.

Given the way the congressional generic ballot has moved toward the GOP (see previous post), I think we may see the headlong rush toward socialism moderated a bit.