The Iranian Uprising

John Podhoretz at Commentary has some thoughts on the violence currently underway following the Iranian election:

For more than a decade, we’ve been hearing about the real Iran—the one whose youth is Westernized, desirous of connection with the United States, and tired of living in a theocracy. It’s too soon to know whether the protests today in Iran represent the fruition of the ideas about popular sentiment and the possibility of an uprising. But it is clear that this is a time of testing for the idea that the mullahcracy can be shaken to its foundations by an aggrieved populace. If it can’t, then the regime will prove itself stronger than some of its most heated critics say it is, and the world will have to adjust accordingly. If this is Tienanmen II, and the regime crushes it, there will be no easy approach to regime change. And there will be no pretending any longer that Iran’s regime isn’t a unified, hardline, irridentist, and enormously dangerous one.

The mullahs clearly blew this one by announcing that current president Mahmoud Imanutjob had won with 63% of the vote while the wildly popular challenger only got 34%. According to official sources the challenger even got beat in his home town, which seems very unlikely. I have my doubts that votes in many areas were even counted. The outcome was decided before the voters went to the polls.

Had Imanutjob won a close race - say 53%-47%, the world would probably have far fewer questions. However, the mullahs wanted more of a mandate for their chosen winner and in so doing created an unbelievable scenario.

What happens next is anybody's guess. If there really is strong support for the challenger - maybe even a majority of the people - these protests could go on long enough to actually topple the government. It was protests like this in 1979 that drove the Shah out of Iran and brought the Ayatollah to power.

The only way there will be real change in Iran is if they don't just change presidents, but drive the mad mullahs out of there as well. As long as religious madmen intent on destroying Israel remain in power, Iran will be a threat no matter who is president.