Prop 8 Challenge May Be Delayed Until 2012

Gay marriage advocates are trying to figure out the best time bring forward an initiative to overturn the gay marriage ban in California:

Leaders of Equality California, one of the state’s largest gay rights groups, announced today it will wait until 2012 to push for an amendment to the California Constitution to permit same-sex marriage.

Many gay rights groups have favored returning the issue to voters as soon as 2010. Leaders at Equality California, which spearheaded the campaign against Proposition 8, the November ballot measure that banned same-sex marriage, have said they want to make sure they can win.

They have said they worry about raising the millions of dollars necessary in the current tough economic climate and also that it will take longer than two years to convince enough voters.

Officials at Equality California said they made the decision to wait until 2012 based on discussions with donors and community organizers. The extra time, backers said, will allow for more fundraising and outreach.

Proposition 8 passed by 52% in November after the most expensive campaign in California history over a social issue.

[Updated at 12:05 p.m.: There has been much debate among same-sex marriage backers about when to place a measure on the ballot. There is another group that is considering placing such a measure on the 2010 ballot.

I can understand their dilemma. They want to bring a ballot initiative at a time when they're likely to be able to turn out enough voters to win. However, both November elections in 2010 and 2012 will pose a problem for gay activists.

Voter outrage against Democrats and all things liberal could turn out conservatives and right-leaning moderates in big numbers in 2010 while liberals, sensing a coming blowout, could stay home.

In 2012 Obama will be running for reelection which will turn out a large black vote, and it was the black vote that was the deciding factor in the passage of Prop 8. They voted for it overwhelmingly 70%-30%. They'll also be dealing with a strong conservative anti-Obama turnout regardless of who the GOP nominee is.

Their best bet may be one of the primary elections, but even that has its risks. Primaries are not usually attended, but an incendiary issue like gay marriage could mobilize large amounts of voters trying to counteract each other.

There's certainly no guarantee that the gay marriage forces will be able to undo Prop 8, and the election dynamics of the next two cycles aren't going to help them in their quest.