Could a Republican Win a Reliably Democrat Seat in the Gay Bay?

Seems unlikely, but there are two posts that might make you wonder. First, from Jim Geraghty:

Democratic California lieutenant governor John Garamendi is running for Congress, in that special election in the district near San Francisco, and the expectation is that despite his flaws as a candidate, the fact that it's a heavily Democratic district should save him.

But . . . maybe not. Besides the fact that he looks silly on the stump, insisting questioners not use "the T-word" -- taxes -- his campaign is looking pretty amateurish.

For starters, Garamendi's campaign sent out a mailer, accusing Republican rival David Harmer of supporting "off shoring jobs" and citing a story from Utah's Deseret News from April 23, 2004.

Except that story wasn't about the David Harmer running for Congress; it was about Utah's executive director of the State Department of Community and Economic Development David Harmer.

Same name, different guy. What's more, congressional candidate David Harmer wasn't even living in Utah at the time.

I believe this is a good use for that phrase they're using on ESPN's NFL postgame show -- "Come on, man!"

Jim had a follow-up later in the day in which Garamendi, when confronted with his error, basically pulled the same stunt many are pulling on Rush Limbaugh - taking false information and saying "well, that's what he would have said if he could". Loser.

A second post at Big Government offers even more hope for the GOP:

The San Francisco Bay Area may just prove to be the 3 am the wake call the Obama Administration doesn’t want. This November 3, a potential trend setting – special election – is taking place in Congressional District 10. CD 10 is the old Ellen Tauscher (D) seat she vacated when she became #3 in the State Department.

It is a battle featuring a Big Government Liberal, aka John Garamendi, and the Republican David Harmer who is employing an interesting, new strategy. Before I get to Harmer: I know what you are thinking: The SF Bay Area? A Republican pick up? The answer quite possibly could be YES.

Polling shows the race just outside the margin of error and the Generic Congressional ballot is even closer. With one month to go (1) enthusiasm is running high among Harmer supporters and (2) John Garamendi is a classic target for a rebound election.

According to Garamendi, we have to “change the mindset” of Californians on Prop 13 – the landmark property tax reform passed by the CA voters in 1978 to keep higher property taxes from running people out of their homes. Garamendi wants to end Prop 13 as we know it and the two-thirds majority vote needed for the CA Legislature to pass a budget or levy taxes. He also supports higher income taxes “without apology” – most of the time. Recently, however, he was caught double dealing on the issue as highlighted by this Harmer Campaign video. Beyond that, Garamendi wants “European-style” health care for America.

Get the picture? Garamendi would be classic vote for old-line liberal causes – a replacement for Ted Kennedy if you will.

There's more at the link. Harmer is running on a very conservative platform that may just catch fire with what's going on now in America.