The Three Key Races for November 3rd

Ace of Spades has some polling info on the three key races that will be decided on November 3rd:

Virginia Governor: Robert McDonnell (R) vs. Creigh Deeds (D). The WaPo editorial staff must be gnashing their teeth after their absolute failure to sink McDonnell with another "macaca" moment. He's up 11 with likely voters: 55 percent to 44 percent. (Is there not a single undecided likely voter in Virginia?)

New Jersey Governor: Chris Christie (R) vs. Jon Corzine (D). After an alarming poll over the weekend showing Corzine in the lead and outside the margin, Rasmussen's latest release has this race back in familiar territory. Christie is up 3 among likely voters at 46 percent, possibly because spoiler Chris Daggett is shedding support. Corzine is at 43 percent, which puts this race within the margin of error.

New York 23rd Congressional District: Doug Hoffman (C) vs. Bill Owens (D) vs. Dede Scozzafava. The latest in the 23rd is the weak Club for Growth poll which only sampled 300 likely voters and a disproportionate number of Republicans. It may be a better indicator of where Republicans are going (away from Scozzafava as fast as their feet can take them) than the ultimate outcome of the race. Scozzafava and Hoffman are still splitting the Republican votes in this normally Republican district. According to the Club for Growth, a full 22 percent of likely voters still haven't decided who they are going to vote for next week.

Democrats will lose Virginia, probably lose New Jersey (depending on how much voter fraud the Democrats can work up), and NY-23 is still a crapshoot. Doug Hoffman has received a number of high profile endorsements while Dede Scozzafava has made one mistake after another. The Democrat in the race is just sitting back hoping the Republicans split their vote and self-destruct. That's still possible.

There's another race that Ace doesn't mention and that's the special election in CA-10, a very Democrat district. However, the Republican candidate David Harmer is making a real good run against an old guard liberal Democrat John Garamendi. Jim Geraghty has more on that race. An upset is not out of the question.

Should be an interesting election night.