Democrats May Flip Congress Next Year

To the Republicans. So says Michael Barone, who knows more about the American electorate than anybody:

Sometimes a poll result slaps you in the face. That was the case for me when I saw Public Policy Polling’s results in the 2nd congressional district of Arkansas. PPP has the incumbent, Democrat Vic Snyder, leading three unknown Republicans (two-thirds to three-quarters of respondents could not describe their feelings toward them) by margins of 44%-43%, 44%-42% and 45%-42%. No, it doesn’t matter which Republican got the best score. The news here is that a seven-term Democratic incumbent, an intelligent man (he has earned an M.D.) with no disqualifying personal characteristics or accusations of scandal (so far as I know) is running significantly below 50% and is essentially tied with three unknown Republicans.

Snyder was first elected to the House in 1996, when the Bill Clinton was sweeping to reelection (Little Rock is in the 2nd district), by a 52%-48% margin. A coattails victory, perhaps: Bill Clinton was carrying the district 55%-37%. Since then Snyder has won with solid percentages, 58% in 1998 and 2000, 93% in 2002, 58% in 2004, 61% in 2006 and 77% in 2008 (when, as in 2002, he had no Republican opponent). But now, PPP tells us, Snyder’s job rating is 42%-46% negative, and 55% of 2nd district voters (and 67% of Independents) oppose the health care bill the House passed and Snyder voted for while only 32% favor it.

Arkansas 2 is part of what I call the Jacksonian belt, the swath of counties from southwestern Pennsylvania along the Appalachian chain and extending to Oklahoma and Texas which were largely settled by the Scots-Irish immigrants that streamed into America in the dozen years before the Revolution and their descendants. Their great hero, and the son of Scots-Irish immigrants himself, was Andrew Jackson, the victor of Horseshoe Bend and New Orleans, who set about removing Indians from much of this territory and was the founder of the Democratic party. In 2008 voters in the Jacksonian belt voted heavily against Barack Obama in both the Democratic primaries and the general election, as you can see on these national maps and by clicking on individual states to see the county-by-county returns. This map showing the counties which cast a higher percentage of votes for John McCain in 2008 than for George W. Bush in 2004 is essentially a map of the Jacksonian belt.

If Vic Snyder is in trouble, it’s a good bet that many other Democrats from the Jacksonian belt are too. Arkansas 2 is not the most anti-Obama district in the Jacksonian belt; John McCain won it by a 54%-44% margin, and Obama carried Pulaski County which includes Little Rock and its close-in suburbs. The following table shows Democratic incumbents in 35 Jacksonian districts which either voted for McCain or went for Obama by narrow margins in part because of high turnout from black voters which seems unlikely to be duplicated in 2010; I’ve included the year in which each member was first elected and the McCain percentage in each district. Not all these Democrats in my judgment are vulnerable; they include many longtime incumbents who have built up goodwill in their districts or who have had consistent moderate or even conservative records or who as committee chairmen are in a position to help their districts, or all three. Republicans might not even have a candidate in some of these districts. But if Vic Snyder is running only even against unknown Republicans, that may be the case for half or more of these Democrats.

Barone has a chart of the potentially vulnerable districts. The GOP won't win them all, but the fact that they even have a chance against a guy like Snyder tells you that the Democrat brand is in real trouble.