Snowe Storm

Snowe could fall in Maine in 2012 and it's not because of global cooling:

It looks like Olympia Snowe could have a pretty hard time getting nominated for another term in the Senate as a Republican.

There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe's job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she's doing a bad job to 40% who give her good marks.

Snowe is still pretty popular with the liberal/moderate wing of her party, earning a 64% approval rating from them. But even in Maine 68% of Republicans are conservatives and they give her just a 29% approval rating with a 56% majority disapproving of her.

Asked how they would vote in a primary contest between Snowe and a more conservative challenger, just 31% of likely Republican voters say they would pick Snowe while 59% say they would go for the conservative alternative.

This is the same scenario Arlen Specter was facing in 2010 which prompted him to jump to the Democrats. However, in Specter's case it probably won't matter. Pennsylvanians don't seem to care much for him these days and he'll get a primary challenger that will likely beat him.

Snowe still has lots of time to decide whether the electoral waters look calmer on the Dem side. She doesn't seem as opportunistic to me as Specter does, so I'm not expecting a party switch. But, politicians will do lots of unexpected things if they think they have to do it to save their seat.