America’s “permanent Democratic majority” ran smack into the economy’s apparent “new normal” of high unemployment and big deficits. Score one for the economy — and for Republicans.If it had been close in Virginia I'm not sure the message would have gotten through to those Democrats in swing districts. However, McDonnell won by nearly 20 points, the GOP swept all three top positions in that state, and picked up a bunch of seats in their legislature. All warning signs for the Dems.
Now the Democratic spin on losing the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey is this: All politics are local. A weak candidate in one state, an unpopular governor in the other. Plus voters are cranky about the economy.
No broader conclusions should be drawn. Now let’s move forward and go pass healthcare, OK, America?
But the political reality is not nearly that sunny for Democrats’ political fate or the Obama domestic agenda. Jon Corzine lost in deep-blue New Jersey — a state Candidate Obama won by nearly 15 percentage points — despite outspending Republican opponent Chris Christie by some three to one.
And not only did Republican Bob McDonnell lead a GOP landslide sweep of major offices in swing-state Virginia, his 344,000-vote victory came against an opponent he defeated by just 360 votes in 2005 for attorney general.
And it wasn’t just the bad economy. Yes, exit polls showed great voter anxiety about high unemployment. But also notice huge Republican margins among New Jersey and Virginia independents, voters traditionally suspicious of government spending and budget deficits. These are the sorts of folks who left the GOP in 1992 to vote for Ross Perot and parted ways again in 2006 and 2008 because they felt Republicans had morphed again into big spenders.
(And the unemployment rate isn’t even that terrible in Virginia: 6.7 percent versus 9.8 nationally.)
Voter revulsion at trillion-dollar deficits and impatience about unemployment is creating a toxic environment for the Obama White House and congressional Democrats. Major legislative items like healthcare, energy and financial reform are already slipping into next year.
History suggests that incumbent parties who get big things done, get them done in the first year of a presidential term, such as the Reagan tax cuts or Clinton’s successful push for NAFTA. Midterm election years are where big policy dreams turn into nightmares, such ashealthcare reform in 1994.
It’s hard to imagine that the 84 House Democrats from districts won by either John McCain in 2008 or President Bush in 2004 are now more inclined to support either an expensive health plan or a cap-and-trade energy plan. Already Democrats are hinting at shrinking the former and putting the latter on the backburner. (One policy that might get more attention is a second stimulus package to create more jobs.)
Tuesday’s election results are a roadmap for political gridlock in Washington and a possible Democratic electoral disaster in 2010.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
So Much For the Permanent Dem Majority
James Pethokoukis and are I are on the same wavelength when it comes to Tuesday's results:
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
A commenter to the source you excerpted, James Pethokoukis, writes this excellent analysis:
Yes! Yes! Yes! Finally someone who gets it! Partisan spin aside, last night was about independents and the middle. We got angry and punished Republicans in 2006 and 2009 - many of us due to fiscal irresponsibility. So you can imagine how much angrier we are at 4 times the fiscal (ir)responsibility (sic: ed) now being exhibited. We punished Democrats last night. And we will punish them next year. This is the point where I should say that independents are sick and tired of hearing that Barack Obama inherited a mess. He inherited a mess alright - a mess that started with the housing meltdown - and that meltdown started with Democrats who browbeat and threatened banks into lending money to people who couldn't pay it back. Then when some greedy A-holes on Wall Street found a way to package it all up and make money, the two pillars of this crisis were cemented together: liberal social engineering and Wall Street greed.
Your historical references are spot on too. I was part of the wave that punished Bill Clinton and the Dems in 1994, but rewarded Bill two years later when he tacked back center and started balancing budgets.
Mr. Pethokoukis, your insight is spot on. I will make a point of watching for your articles in the future.
-------
There you have it. I suspect this is a very accurate analysis of what's been, and what's to come.
Post a Comment