10 Reasons Why the Massachusetts Election is Important

Houston Chronicle writer Richard Dunham offers this:

1. Massachusetts is one of the most Democratic states in the nation. It hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 1972; the entire congressional delegation is Democratic. A GOP win would shock the liberal Democratic establishment that dismissed the 2009 gubernatorial setbacks in Virginia and New Jersey as mere flukes.

2. Health care reform is at stake. A victory for Brown would deprive the Democrats of the 60 votes they need to push their brand of health care reform through the Senate without Republican support. That would be a huge defeat for President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

3. Democrat-only legislative power would come to an end. If Senate Democrats lose in Massachusetts, they lose their tenuous 60-seat majority needed to push forward legislation. That means moderate Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine would instantly become two of the most powerful people on Capitol Hill. One way or another, the Obama agenda would have to be retooled.

4. This is the “Kennedy” seat. For six decades, this particular Massachusetts Senate seat has been represented by John F. Kennedy, Ted Kennedy or a family designee (on a temporary basis). The symbolism of Republicans seizing the seat would be huge.

5. This is where the Boston Tea Party took place. New England “patriots” rebelled against high taxes by dumping tea into Boston Harbor some 235 years ago. Now, the new generation of “Tea Party patriots” hopes to dump candidates who raise taxes and increase federal spending. Again, a big symbolic thing.

6. This is a test of the power of political independents. Fewer than one in eight Massachusetts voters admits to being a Republican. Brown can’t get close to victory without carrying independent voters by a wide margin and chipping away at the Democratic base. And that would be bad news for Democrats. If independents continue to flee the Democratic Party, as they did in New Jersey and Virginia last year, midterm elections could be a disaster for Democrats.

7. It’s a good indicator of voters’ desire for divided government. Even in Massachusetts, many voters want to send a message to Democrats in Washington: One-party government is not a good idea. A Brown win or even a photo finish would tell us that even some Democrats want a limit on the power of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

8. It could give a jump-start to GOP recruiting efforts in other states. One of the keys to the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994 was a superb recruiting effort that enlisted big-name challengers to Democratic incumbents. If Brown wins in Massachusetts, the Texans atop the GOP congressional campaign efforts — John Cornyn in the Senate and Pete Sessions in the House — probably would have recruits lining up outside their offices to take on Democratic incumbents.

9. It’s proof that Republicans don’t have to be moderates to win on Democratic turf. Scott Brown is an unapologetic conservative. If he can win (or come close) in Massachusetts, it sends a message that conservative Republicans can play ball in “blue” America.

10. It would be a personal and political repudiation of Obama. The president upped the political ante Sunday by flying to Boston for a rally with Democrat Coakley. By inserting himself, Obama raised the stakes: If Massachusetts voters reject his personal appeal, it’s a sign that the president’s (remaining) personal popularity doesn’t necessarily transfer to endangered Democrats.

Yep, all of the above.