Democrats' loss in Tuesday's race for a Massachusetts Senate seat is a stark illustration of how support from independent voters has collapsed, a phenomenon that's prompting party leaders to revamp their playbook for this year's midterm elections.Yeah, that'll work.
Independent voters—typically centrist, white and working-class—backed President Barack Obama and the Democrats in 2008. But Massachusetts is now the third Obama-won state in the past three months where independents have swung decisively Republican.
Polls in the days leading up to the vote suggested the lead for Republican Scott Brown came about largely because of his advantage among independents over Democrat Martha Coakley.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Mr. Obama's job-approval rating among independents nationwide is 41%. That's an 11-point drop from his performance on Election Day in 2008, when he won 52% of independents, and a near-20-point decline among that group from the heights of his popularity soon after taking office.
"The independents are the fulcrum of the American electorate," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the Journal survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "Simply put, for the Democrats and Barack Obama, the arrows have been pointing down."
With Ms. Coakley's loss, a debate erupted late Tuesday among Democratic leaders and activists over how to win back independents. Liberal groups, such as union officials, demanded the party stick to its guns on core issues such as health care.
But party leaders called for shifting to a populist message talking about the economy and bashing Wall Street. Democrats plan to blame Republicans for the economy and align GOP candidates with their unpopular national leadership.
Bashing big banks makes liberals all a'twitter, but to most independents it really doesn't make sense. After all, they have their accounts in big banks, and they understand if new punitive taxes are levied on banks interest rates will go down and fees will go up. Pretty much everything liberals want to do will result in less money in the wallets of the independents.
And who is the unpopular national GOP leadership they're talking about? Sarah Palin?
They can blame the GOP all they want for the economy, but most independents have access to calendars and they understand that Obama has been in command for over one year now, and the Dems have had Congress for over 3 years now. It's a fantasy to think independents will be swayed by the "Blame Bush" argument. It certainly didn't work in Massachusetts.
The indies bought the whole unicorns and rainbows thing, but now they're seeing the light. Turns out the halo around Obama's head was just the headlight of the oncoming liberal train.
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