And in Indiana Rep. Mike Pence leads Dem Senator Evan Bayh 47% to 44%, and Pence isn't even officially in the race yet.
Both Strickland and Bayh have been reasonably popular incumbents. If they can be beaten, Dems in marginal districts are in big, big trouble.
In yet another sign of trouble for Democrats, Joe Biden's son Beau, thought to be the heir apparent to Biden's Senate seat, has announced that he will not run for the Senate but will seek re-election to his current position as Attorney General. In a more favorable year for Democrats I think Biden would have eagerly run for his dad's old seat and would have probably won. This year, not so much.
And how's that party change working for Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania? He switched to Democrat thinking it would give him a clear shot at re-election. According to Nate Silver, a Democrat who handicaps all these major races, there's a 72% chance that conservative Republican Pat Toomey will be the next Senator from Pennsylvania regardless of whether the Democrats nominate Spector or Joe Sestak.
And here are some of Silver's other Senate projections:
North Dakota - 99% chance of GOP win / pick-up
Arkansas - 73% chance of GOP win / pick-up
Nevada - 73% chance of GOP win / pick-up
Colorado - 70% chance of GOP win / pick-up
Delaware - 66% chance of GOP win / pick-up
Illinois - 51% chance of GOP win / pick-up
Missouri - 63% chance of GOP win / pick-up
Indiana - 63% chance of Dem win / hold
Ohio - 65% chance of GOP win / hold
New Hampshire - 65% chance of GOP win / pick-up
Kentucky - 74% chance of GOP win - hold
California - 79% chance of Dem win - hold
Florida - 82% chance of GOP win - hold
Wisconsin - 84% chance of Dem win - hold
North Carolina - 85% chance of GOP win - hold
New York - 87% chance of Dem win - hold
Washington - 93% chance of Dem win - hold
Louisiana - 93% chance of GOP win - hold
Georgia - 95% chance of GOP win - hold
Hawaii - 96% chance of Dem win - hold
Oregon - 96% chance of Dem win - hold
Arizona - 97% chance of GOP win - hold
Iowa - 97% chance of GOP win - hold
Connecticut - 99% chance of Dem win - hold
Kansas - 99% chance of GOP win - hold
Other states without much of a race - Give the GOP South Carolina, Alabama, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Alaska, Utah and Idaho. Dems get the other New York seat, Maryland, and Vermont.
As you can see there are lots of GOP pick-ups (8) and no Dem pick-ups. I still think California could end up in play and although Silver gives Indiana to the Dems, that one's not a sure deal either. If both CA and IN went GOP the Senate would be tied 50-50. Dems would retain control with Joe Biden as Vice President.
Could be a big GOP year.
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I just hope the GOP won't squander their votes. They need to get a plan together that will put our country back on track. The reason they lost the majority the last time was the economy.
Raising taxes won't help. Our country needs to learn to live within the budget and cut out the waste and corruption.
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