Scott Brown +15%?

Wow. I'm not real confident that a new poll from PajamasMedia is completely accurate, but even if the lead is half the 15% shown in the poll it still shows that Scott Brown is in great shape to win on Tuesday. Last night's Suffolk poll had Brown up 4, the first time he's shown up with any kind of significant lead.

Byron York has more on the current political climate in Massachusetts:

Here in Massachusetts, as well as in Washington, a growing sense of gloom is setting in among Democrats about the fortunes of Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley. "I have heard that in the last two days the bottom has fallen out of her poll numbers," says one well-connected Democratic strategist. In her own polling, Coakley is said to be around five points behind Republican Scott Brown. "If she's not six or eight ahead going into the election, all the intensity is on the other side in terms of turnout," the Democrat says. "So right now, she is destined to lose."

Intensifying the gloom, the Democrat says, is the fact that the same polls showing Coakley falling behind also show President Obama with a healthy approval rating in the state. "With Obama at 60 percent in Massachusetts, this shouldn't be happening, but it is," the Democrat says.

Given those numbers, some Democrats, eager to distance Obama from any electoral failure, are beginning to compare Coakley to Creigh Deeds, the losing Democratic candidate in the Virginia governor's race last year. Deeds ran such a lackluster campaign, Democrats say, that his defeat could be solely attributed to his own shortcomings, and should not be seen as a referendum on President Obama's policies or those of the national Democratic party.

The same sort of thinking is emerging in Massachusetts. "This is a Creigh Deeds situation," the Democrat says. "I don't think it says that the Obama agenda is a problem. I think it says, 1) that she's a terrible candidate, 2) that she ran a terrible campaign, 3) that the climate is difficult but she should have been able to overcome it, and 4) that Democrats beware -- you better run good campaigns, or you're going to lose."

Those who think Coakley should be doing better because of Obama's popularity in Massachusetts err if they think his personal popularity matches the popularity of his policies. While he is personably likable to many Bay State voters, his high-tax, big government policies are quickly losing favor with voters from all parties. Martha Coakley has more or less promised to be a rubber-stamp for those policies and that's hurt her almost as much as her personality deficit.

Looks like another woman going for Teddy Kennedy's seat may die in the process.