Incumbents May Be an Endangered Species

A new Fox News poll could spell trouble for the congressional old-timers in both parties:

As Americans look ahead to the mid-term elections, anything new is preferable to anything old, -- such as an incumbent. And despite recent Republican wins in Massachusetts, Virginia and New Jersey, this is not necessarily good news for Republicans.

Americans dispense just about as much disdain for Republicans (42 percent favorable; 46 percent unfavorable) as Democrats (42 percent favorable; 48 percent unfavorable), according to a Fox News poll released Friday.

On the other hand, the new kid on the block -- the Tea Party Movement -- fares better (35 percent favorable; 22 percent unfavorable), although more than four of 10 voters are unable to give an opinion or say they have never heard of the group.

The real dynamic seems to be a revolt against insiders -- as voters say they would choose a challenger over an incumbent by a two-to-one margin (38 percent to 19 percent).

Nearly all voters express some degree of interest in the November midterms, although significantly more Republicans (38 percent) than Democrats (22 percent) say they are “extremely” interested.

Moreover, Republicans (41 percent) have a slim edge over Democrats (36 percent) on a generic Congressional ballot, if the election were held today.

The Tea Party movement did itself a lot of harm last night when it allowed Birthers to hijack its convention and turn it into a national joke. If they don't disavow themselves of that nonsense nobody will ever take them seriously.

People involved in the Tea Party thing need to remember what they were created for - an opposition group to big government and higher taxes. That's the important stuff, not chasing after birth certificates and conspiracy theories. If they stick to what got them started they can be a powerful movement for change in our political process, especially if they work to identify good candidates and get them nominated as Republicans. A third party effort would simply serve the interests of the liberal Democrats.

And the whole Birther outbreak at the convention will create an awkward moment for Sarah Palin. She addresses the Tea Party convention tonight and I guarantee you the press will be expecting her to say something about the Birther thing. If she goes along with it she will marginalize herself and it will be the political headline tomorrow. If she tells them to knock off that silliness it won't get as much attention, but it will keep her as a serious candidate.