Boehner: GOP Could Pick Up 100 Seats

I think you have to be very careful to avoid overconfidence, but who knows, Boehner could be right:

House Republicans could win 100 or more seats in this fall's elections, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Friday.

Boehner said he believes there is no seat that the GOP cannot win during this election cycle, judging by Sen. Scott Brown's (R) improbable win in January's special election in Massachusetts.

Reflecting Republican optimism that they can win back control of the House this fall, Boehner said 2010 has the widest playing field for Republicans in a while.

"Let me remind you that Scott Brown won the Ted Kennedy Senate seat in Massachusetts," Boehner said during an appearance on National Public Radio. "If Scott Brown can win in Massachusetts, there isn't a seat in America that Republicans can't win."

When pressed for a number, Boehner said he believed the GOP could win as many as 100 seats in this fall's elections.

Other prognosticators have more modest projections for Republicans. The University of Virginia's Center for Politics predicts the GOP would pick up 27 seats if the election were held today. Republicans need to win 41 seats to take back control of the House.

But Boehner says the playing field is the widest he's ever seen since joining Congress in 1991, which by implication includes the landslide 1994 congressional elections that swept Republicans to control of Congress.

"What we're seeing every day is the playing field widen -- widen beyond anything we've seen here in my 20 years," Boehner said.

I think the UVA analysis is waaaayyy low, even at this point in the cycle. They must only be looking at sure things. Forty seats is now very doable, and even some lefties have the numbers upward of 51+. Unless this immigration mess in Arizona suddenly energizes Democrats, and I don't really think it will in the long run, the GOP should be setting itself up for a very strong year.