Worse Case November Outcome For Dems REALLY Bad

Nate Silver, a liberal political analyst, has been looking at the best and worse case outcomes for the Democrats in November. A best case, which is increasingly unlikely, is a loss of 20 seats in the House and 3-4 in the Senate.

Not gonna happen. It'll be much, much worse than that. Silver also has revised his worse case scenario and if that comes to pass, wow.

In my piece a couple of weeks ago, I wrote that there was only a 1 in 10 chance that Democrats would lose more than 55 seats in November. Having now looked at this issue in somewhat more detail, that clearly seems to be a lowball estimate. While there is other statistical and anecdotal evidence that one can point toward that is relatively more favorable to Democrats, and while there are other techniques, like a district-by-district analysis, that could be applied to this problem instead — if you could get 9:1 odds (a 1-in-10 chance) on the Democrats losing more than 55 seats in the House, that would be a good bet.

And what if, for example, the Rasmussen case comes into being. Rasmussen has the Democrats losing the generic ballot by 9 points (and has had similar numbers for awhile). A 9-point loss in the House popular vote would translate into a projected 65-seat loss for Democrats. Or, if we adjust the Rasmussen poll to account for the fact that the Democrats' performance in the popular vote tends to lag the generic ballot, it works out to a 12.4-point loss in the popular vote, which implies a loss of 79 seats!"

Anything over 50 seats will be a repudiation of liberal policies like nothing we've seen since at least 1994. If it exceeds 54 seats it will be the worst bloodbath the Dems have ever experienced.

Right now I don't see any signs of the voter anger at the Democrats subsiding. In fact, it seems to be increasing and that's going to make for a long, hot summer. Add to that the move to enact a new energy bill featuring lots of new taxes, a push to enact a VAT tax, and who knows what else the Dems will come up with, and all of this adds up to a political party committing suicide.