Aloha Dems

A traditionally Democrat district in Honolulu may be about to say Aloha to having a Democrat in Congress (from The Morning Jolt):

We knew the special election in Hawaii's first district was going to be competitive, but the Honolulu Advertiser informs us that we may be approaching the most shocking win by a Republican in heavily Democratic territory since . . . well, technically since January, and that one was the first one since November, but hey, it's still big news: "Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has the advantage in the special election for Congress, a new Hawai'i Poll has found, giving Republicans the best opportunity in two decades to claim the urban Honolulu district. Djou leads with 36 percent, former congressman Ed Case is chasing at 28 percent, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is trailing with 22 percent. Thirteen percent were undecided."

Jim Geraghty tells us that the undecided vote tends to be Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders, and they may break pretty hard for Hanabusa, but we'll see. This could be a big GOP pick-up.

The other race to watch is PA-12, John Murtha's old district. Republican Tim Burns is in a very close race with the special election scheduled May 18th. Most analysts have it leaning GOP. We'll see.