Some Thoughts on Tonight's Primary Races

This was not a good night for the GOP leadership.

In Kentucky the GOP backed the loser who lost rather badly.  Rand Paul certainly won the hearts of conservatives, but will he be able to carry the day in the entire state?  I guarantee the Democrats will take every opportunity to connect Paul not only with his own policies and statements, but with his dad Ron Paul's.  Even though Rand differs from his dad on some key issues, they'll be joined at the hip in Dem advertising.

Kentucky should be an easy GOP win.  We'll see.  The race probably got a little tougher with a Rand Paul win.

In Pennsylvania and across the country there were lots of people who couldn't wait to see Arlen Specter defeated.  His decision to leave the GOP and give Democrats the 60th vote in the Senate certainly put him at the top of everyone's most wanted list.  However, his loss in PA made that Senate race much more competitive.

Although a Specter win tonight would have kept the insufferable Senator's career alive a little longer, he would have been a much weaker candidate against Pat Toomey in the Fall.  Joe Sestak has some real credentials and will be a tough competitor.  Sometimes getting what you want, such as a loss by Specter tonight, is not the best thing in the long run.  The race in PA will go from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

One more thing - Specter was supported by Obama.  Obama is now 0-4.

In PA-12 the special election win by Dem Mark Critz will be spun any number of ways by the press, even though the district has a heavy Dem advantage in registration and has been in Dem hands for decades.  Here's what you can expect to see in the breathless reports about this race:

• This win was "surprising" and/or "great" for the Dems.
• The GOP was overconfident.
• Voter anger against Democrats is a myth.
• The Fall elections now look a lot better for Democrats.

Uh...no.  Critz was able to win this because of three things:

• Heavy Democrat voter registration advantage in the district
• Heavy Dem turnout because of the contested Senate election
• Critz ran as a conservative, running against nearly all of Obama's policies

One thing for sure, I doubt the GOP will spend much money on this district in the general election.  This was probably Tim Burns only chance to win this thing.

In Arkansas it looks like the Senate race will go to a runoff.  As I write this 59% of the vote is in and Lincoln and Halter are tied at 43%.  We'll do it all again in three weeks.  The real question is how the 14% that voted for the third candidate will split.  Given that they didn't vote for the incumbent in the first round I'd guess that the majority of that vote will go to Halter, who ran against Lincoln from her left.

Should Lincoln win on June 8th she's still in big trouble statewide.  Should Halter win, the race becomes even more of a GOP favorite.

Let the spin begin!