House Races: 200 Dem, 200 GOP, 35 Toss-ups

Rob Port has the graphic on the races which you can see here.  At this point in the election Real Clear Politics, which accumulates information from every poll they can get their hands on, shows that Democrats have 150 safe seats, 23 that are likely to go Dem, and 27 that are leaning Dem, for a total of 200.

The GOP has 165 safe seats, 10 likely to go GOP, and 25 leaning GOP for a total of 200.  There are 35 toss-up seats, 33 of which are currently held by Dems.  A GOP win of only 16 of those seats tosses Nancy Pelosi out of the Speaker's chair.

This Fox News poll suggests why things look the way they do right now:

Voters will go to the polls this November with control of Congress at stake. Yet most voters say when they pull that lever, they will be sending a message to the White House, according to a Fox News poll.

The poll, released Friday, finds that 41 percent of voters will cast their ballots to register opposition to President Obama's policies. A third (33 percent) will vote to express their support. The policies of the administration will not be a factor for 20 percent of voters.

Most Republicans — 72 percent — describe their midterm vote as expressing opposition to the Obama administration. That's a bit higher than the 64 percent of Democrats who say their vote will express support. One in 10 Democrats will vote to express opposition to the president (11 percent).

Independents are nearly 20 percentage points more likely to say their vote will express opposition (41 percent) rather than support (23 percent) for Obama policies. Thirty-three percent of independents say the administration won't influence their vote.

If the election were held today, 41 percent of voters would back the Republican candidate in their congressional district and 37 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate. That's little changed from two weeks ago when the vote favored the Republican candidate by 42-40 percent (June 29-30).

Voters will not be giving the White House a ringing endorsement this Fall.