White Voters Will Make the Difference This Fall

White voters fell for the whole rainbows and unicorns pitch in 2008 in larger numbers than they usually do for Democrats, but that seems to be correcting itself before this year's midterm election:

To become the nation's first black president, Barack Obama not only won heavy percentages of the black and Hispanic vote but also managed to trim the Democratic Party's traditional deficit among white voters.

Four years after Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) lost the white vote by 17 percentage points, Obama lost it by 12, according to exit polls. While the 2008 gains were generally attributed to Obama's strength with young voters -- he won by 10 points among whites 18 to 29 years old -- he managed to improve on Kerry's showing with white voters across every age demographic.

Fast-forward to today. With the November midterm elections less than four months away, Obama's standing among white voters has sunk -- leading some party strategists to fret that the president's erosion -- and the party's -- could adversely affect Democrats' chances of holding on to their House and Senate majorities.

"Since in the past House elections white voters tended to represent the independent vote, [the midterms] will surely be devastating for Democrats running in an election that will be a referendum on the Obama agenda," predicted one senior Democratic operative who closely tracks House races.

In Washington Post-ABC polling, Obama's approval rating among white voters has dropped from better than 60 percent to just above 40 percent. In a June poll, 46 percent of white voters under age 40 approved of how Obama was doing, compared with just 39 percent of whites 65 and older.

How long until the cries of racism start? You just know if white voters abandon the Democrats in big numbers in November the media spin will be racism against Obama rather than opposition to Obama and the Democrats' policies.

I think there's a good chance that some of the minorities that swooned for Obama will also wake up this cycle and realize the damage their decision last time has caused. There won't be a lot of them, but even a change of a small percentage of that vote could be significant in key races.