National and local polls continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects. Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible. The next few weeks will be crucial, as Democratic incumbents seek to drive up Republican challengers’ negatives and strengthen their standing in ballot tests.So, what this report suggests is that Dems have nothing they can sell to voters except running negatives against their opponents. That's pretty sad.
And I think Rothenberg is a little low on his estimates.
UPDATE: Washington Post poll, which screens for likely voters, has it GOP +13.
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