A New Senate Map

Real Clear Politics has a new Senate map out today that shows seven GOP pick-ups, no DEM pick-ups and a 52-48 DEM majority in the next congress.  That accurately reflects today's polling, but I don't think that's how it's actually going to play out.

The RCP map shows GOP pick-ups in WI, PA, ND, IN, IL, CO and AR.  I think those are all pretty solid and won't change before November 2nd.

However, the RCP map shows the DEMS holding CA, NV, DE, WV and WA, and I think all of those are still very much in play.  Barbara "Dumb-as-a-Box-of-Rocks" Boxer is such an annoying personality, and the new Carly Fiorina ad points that out, that it's just hard to image even left-leaning CA sending her back to the Senate.  I think that race will tighten dramatically now that Fiorina is on the air with some hard-hitting ads.

Harry Reid is scum and although Nevada has a history of making heroes out of scum I think Sharron Angle still has a real shot at knocking him off.

Delaware is the longest shot for the GOP.  Christine O'Donnell's nomination was supposed to be the death knell for a GOP takeover in that state, however loser Mike Castle is now contemplating a write-in run which might actually help O'Donnell win the plurality she would need to take that seat.  Don Surber explains how that could work.  It's still doable.

In WV Gov. Manchin, thought to be a shoe-in for the job, has a scandal breaking out that could completely derail his bid to replace Robert "Sheets" Byrd.  It's too early for the GOP to write that one off.

And in WA, Dino Rossi is trailing incumbent nutcase Patty Murray, but in a wave election year it wouldn't surprise me if Rossi, who has great name recognition up there, could pull it off.

In my best case scenario we could actually see a 53-47 GOP majority in the next Senate.  Odds are it won't go that well, but this is a different sort of election.