HolyCoast: Wiping Out a Generation of Dems
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Wiping Out a Generation of Dems

I think Dick Morris is probably overly optimistic here, but who knows:
Thanks to the leadership of President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid, the Democratic Party is facing the biggest defeat in midterm elections in the past 110 years, perhaps surpassing the modern record of a 74-seat gain set in 1922. They will also lose control of the Senate.

Republicans are now leading in 54 Democratic House districts. In 19 more, the incumbent congressman is under 50 percent and his GOP challenger is within five points. That makes 73 seats where victory is within easy grasp for the Republican Party. The only reason the list is not longer is that there are 160 Democratic House districts that were considered so strongly blue that there is no recent polling available.
You can read the rest of his analysis at the link. I don't think anyone else has gone as far out on the limb as Morris has at this point.

Another analysis I'd recommend is Jim Geraghty's conversation with the elusive "Obi Wan", an unnamed veteran political consultant.  Obi Wan was a valuable resource during the 2004 and 2006 elections and even he is having trouble making sense of this election:
Jim: So I’ve been getting a lot of e-mails lately, all asking, ‘What does Obi-Wan Kenobi think?’

Obi-Wan: Why wouldn’t they want to know what somebody from a galaxy far, far away thinks? With each passing day, this election looks more and more like it’s not of this earth.
Read the rest of it here.

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