10 Possible House Upsets

John Gizza at Human Events lists 10 House races which could end in upsets:

1. Conn.-1: Engineer Ann Brickley is running a spirited grass-roots campaign against Rep. John Larson in the Hartford-district that has been Democratic since 1958. (Brickley actually sends hand-written thank-you notes.)

2. La.-2: Once thought a sure loser, Republican Rep. Joseph Cao may now hold on in the New Orleans district against Democratic State Rep. Cedric Richmond.

3. Mass.-4: Bill Clinton came in for a rescue mission because Rep. Barney Frank is in trouble with voters over the flawed Dodd-Frank financial regulation bill and the election of Marine Corps veteran Sean Bielat could be the GOP Cinderella story of 2010.

4. Mass.-6: Lawyer and first-time GOP candidate Bill Hudak has fought seven-term Rep. John Tierney to a tie in the polls so, incredibly, this one is going down to the wire.

5. Mich.-15: Some polls now show physician Robert Steele leading Democratic Rep. John Dingell, longest-serving (56 years) House member in history.

6. Mo.-3: In St. Louis, car dealer Ed Martin (who worked in the Vatican when John Paul II was pope) appears to be closing in on Rep. Russ Carnahan, brother of Democratic Senate nominee Robin Carnahan.

7. N.J.-6: A Tea Party favorite, feisty Highlands Mayor Anna Little, who upset the GOP establishment in the primary, is giving 22-year Rep. Frank Pallone the race of his life.

8. Ore.-4: Scientist and scholar Art Robinson is raising big money and attracting independent expenditure support in his raging battle with 24-year Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio.

9. Pa.-14: Pittsburgh’s Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle suddenly finds himself with a fight on his hands from Melissa Haluszczak, a paralegal daughter of Ukrainian immigrants.

10. RI-2: ’08 GOP nominee Mark Zacaria is giving Rep. Jim Langevin a harder time in their rematch for the Providence district.

There's one more that probably should be on that list - HI1, Obama's "home" district in Hawaii.  A Republican won that seat earlier this year in a 3-way race against two Dems who split the vote and was expected to lose Nov. 2.  Maybe not:

According to a new Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now poll, (Charles) Djou holds a slight 3-point edge over Democrat Colleen Hanabusa, but it is within the margin of error -- a statistical tie.

In a telephone poll of 399 very likely voters in the 1st Congressional District, representing urban Honolulu, Djou was favored by 48 percent, compared with 45 percent for Hanabusa.

Six percent said they were undecided or refused to answer; 1 percent said they would choose someone else.

The poll was conducted by Ward Research Inc. Oct. 12 to last Tuesday and has a 4.9 percent-point margin of error.

Small sample and big margin of error, so the reliability of the poll is iffy at best, but if the GOP manages to hold HI1 and LA2, the only two seats that were thought sure Dem wins, that will really be something.

A lot of these will depend on a significant GOP wave to swing the districts. Although early voting suggests that Republicans are motivated to turn out, we won't really know the extent of the wave until election night.