HolyCoast: 60-70 Seats
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

60-70 Seats

My over/under for this House election has been 56 seats.  There just doesn't seem to be any reason to think the GOP gains will be any less than that based on the number of seats in the play and the current polling.

The Daily Caller is offering their projection today, and they think the GOP will have a little bit better night:
During the last 14 days the White House and President Obama have gone on the attack, and their strategy is pretty simple: “Let’s acknowledge the voter anger and make sure it gets funneled toward something else.” Thus we have seen political attacks on just about everyone — and everything — out there. The problem, though, is that voters aren’t angry with Karl Rove, John Boehner, the Chamber of Commerce or even the “undisclosed financing” of elections. Voters are angry about the economy and they have two devastating perceptions of this administration: voters think it is incompetent and that it has overreached over the past two years. An even bigger problem for the White House is that voters may have already tuned the president out; virtually every possible metric used to evaluate the outcome of the midterm elections suggest a massive GOP victory. So let’s just come out and say it: there is no reason to think that Republicans will do any worse than 1994 (when they picked up 54 seats) and there is plenty of data to suggest that the it will, in fact, be a better year for the GOP. Our projection — based on all current available data — is that the GOP will gain between 60 and 70 House seats in November.
Read the rest of the piece for all the factors they're looking at in making their call.

By the way, in a separate article the Daily Caller is also giving the Senate to the GOP.  Since the Constitution was changed to allow direct election of senators every time the House has changed control the Senate has also changed.  That doesn't mean it has to happen that way, but it always has.

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