Even the NY Times Thinks the GOP Will Win 50 Seats

The Five Thirty Eight blog is run by Nate Silver who is a respected election prognosticator.  He's been reflecting some lower numbers than some of the other polls, but he's catching up:

Republican chances of taking over the House are now up to 80 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast model; they had been 75 percent two days ago.

In an average simulation, the model projected that the Republicans will control 230 seats when the new Congress convenes in January; that would reflect a 51-seat gain from their current standing and would be close to the 54-seat gain that they achieved in 1994. This is the first time we have published a forecast putting the Republican over-under line at a number higher than 50 seats.

As we remind our readers with each update, there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast. Democrats have a 20-percent chance of holding the House — but Republicans have a 30-percent chance of winning at least 60 seats, a 12-percent chance of winning at least 70 seats, and a 3-percent chance of winning 80 or more seats. We would advise against interpreting our forecast as a prediction that Republicans will win some particular number of seats. Instead, it should be thought of as being equivalent to a point spread.

I still think the over/under is 56 seats, though Jay Cost was calling for 61 yesterday. I can't imagine what could happen at this point that could knock those numbers down significantly.