GOP Poised to Gain More Than 50 House Seats

The NY Times 538 Blog is one of many sites handicapping the midterm election and rating each district according to the likelihood of a takeover by the opposing party.  Right now 538 shows 64 seats with an even or better chance of a takeover.  Only four of those seats are currently held by Republicans.

When you add in seats in which a takeover is possible (20%-40% chance) you're up to 80 seats and none of the  additional 16 are held by Republicans.  The GOP seems poised for a very good night on November 2nd.

538 also projects at this point that the Dems will narrowly hang on to the Senate with perhaps a 51-49 split or even a 50-50 split (the VP gives them the majority), and has the GOP holding as many as 30 governorships.

Of course, the GOP gains could be significantly less than this, but it would take a monumental shift during these last few weeks to turn the voters around.  I'm not sure there's an October surprise big enough to do that.  My personal over/under is 56 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate (which would give the GOP control).

Read the whole analysis here.