Tomorrow's Headlines Today

November 3rd:

GOP Falls Short

This will be the headline in many mainstream media outlets on November 3rd regardless of the outcome of the election. If the GOP wins about the same number of seats as they did in 1994, as Charlie Cook is now projecting, the story will be that the Dems did better than expected because they only lost 52 seats instead of 100 and because they only lost 8 Senate seats instead of the 10 it would take to change control.

The media will try to turn this election into a Dem victory lap and a big win for Obama, whose "last minute campaigning saved the day for the Democrats".  I can write that crap too.

The inability to win control in the Senate and the reduction in House wins will be blamed on the Tea Party.  Count on it.  As it pertains to the Senate there may be some truth there, but if Sharron Angle, Joe Miller, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul win, it will be pretty hard to claim that the election was a Tea Party failure.  Should Christine O'Donnell lose big in Delaware and Linda McMahon lose in Connecticut you can pretty much count on the media spin blaming the Tea Party.

Any outcome which leaves the Democrats in control of the Senate will be spun as a Dem and Obama victory - count on it.  The only way that narrative gets moderated at all is if both houses of Congress flip.

Since direct election of Senators was instituted though the 17th Amendment in 1913 every time the House has changed control the Senate has also changed.  Election experts are predicting this will be the first time that hasn't happened.  I'm not so sure yet.  A GOP Senate is still possible, but the wave will have to be pretty big to pull it off.

As far as the House goes, there are all kinds of predictions out there from election experts, ranging from a low pickup of 37 seats to a high of 70.  My over/under for a long time has been 56 and I think that's pretty realistic right now, if not a bit low.  Jay Cost has a rundown of the various projections here.

However, whatever happens count on a media spin that somehow shows the GOP disappointed and dejected and the Dems doing better than expected.  It's as sure as the sun coming up tomorrow.