Van Tran in Position to Knock Out Orange County's Only Dem Congressman

This is encouraging news from Public Opinion Strategies:

Van Tran is tied with Loretta Sanchez on the ballot test. Fully 39% of likely voters say they are supporting Van Tran, while 39% are backing Sanchez and 5% siding with Ceci Iglesias (17% undecided). Moreover, Tran’s definite support level is higher than that of Congresswoman Sanchez (30% definitely voting for Tran – 28% definitely voting for Sanchez).

– While there are certainly solid ethnic coalitions in this race – Asian and Vietnamese voters siding with Tran, Latinos favoring Sanchez – Tran enjoys a commanding 34-point lead with White voters in the district (60% Tran – 26% Sanchez).

– Van Tran also polls strongly with Independent voters (42% Tran – 28% Sanchez) and older voters (50% Tran – 30% Sanchez) – two groups that are likely going to determine the victor here.

– Van Tran has a commanding 22-point lead over Sanchez (52% – 30%) among voters who say they are “extremely interested” in the upcoming elections.

Sanchez won the seat over "B1" Bob Dornan thanks to some voter shenanigans in 1996 and hasn't had a real serious challenger since then. The Vietnamese community in that district has grown significantly and they have a pretty testy relationship with the Hispanic community. I don't expect to see much crossover voting.

Incumbents polling below 50% at this point in the election are in big trouble, and Sanchez is way below 50%. You can donate to Tran's campaign here.