It's Early, but 2012 Looking Shaky for Obama

Of course, at this point after the 1994 elections Bill Clinton looked pretty shaky too, but Byron York looks at the problems Obama has with the base that elected him:

We're fast approaching the halfway point in Barack Obama's term. With Nov. 2 behind him, everything the president does will be calculated to boost, or at least not harm, his chances of re-election in 2012. What's not clear is whether he fully appreciates how badly the coalition he led to victory in 2008 has frayed in just two years. A look inside his poll numbers suggests that if he cannot turn around some key trends, he'll be a one-term president.

Just look at the exit polls from 2008, which reveal the demographic contours of Obama's support. Compare those with Gallup's weekly analysis of the president's approval rating, drawn from multiple polls broken down by age, gender, political philosophy, and the like. Throw in some insights from the midterm elections, and the mix shows a dramatic deterioration in Obama's 2008 support. "His majority coalition is not there," says Republican pollster David Winston. "What he put together, at least in the way he put it together, just isn't there."

Read the rest of it for all the nitty gritty. Bottom line - at this point Obama's base among women, younger voters and white voters, Obama has real problems, and it was those groups that put him over the top.