The December Market Crash

It hasn't happened yet, but depending on how Congress tackles the Bush tax cuts it could be just around the corner:

Failure by Congress to extend the Bush tax cuts, especially locking in the 15 percent capital gains tax rate, will spark a stock market sell off starting December 15 as investors move to lock in gains at a lower rate than the 20 percent it would jump to next year, warn analysts. [See who gets the most money from the financial industry.]

While it is unclear how bad the sell off could be, it could wipe out the year's gains, they warn.

"Capital gains tax rate will increase from 15 to 20 percent if the tax cuts are not extended. The last time the capital gains tax rate increased--on Jan. 1, 1987 from 20 to 28 percent--investors realized their gains at the lower tax rate," said Daniel Clifton at a Washington partner at Strategas Research Partners. "We would expect a similar effect this time around as investors see the tax rate going up and choose to realize their gains and incur the 15 percent tax."

In a memo to clients, Clifton says that the date most clients are focused on is December 15th for a deal in Congress before beginning to sell. One reason: Many stock options expire that day and investors have to act.

The later Congress acts, he tells Whispers, "the more pressure that will build on the stock market."

The House passed a bill that would lock in tax increases for everyone earning $250,000 or more, and that will include lots of small businesses. It's a real job killer. I expect a fight in the Senate to extend the Bush tax rates to all levels.