Dems Haven't Figured Out that 2011 is Not 1995

Chris Stirewalt at Fox News points out the big differences between the environment in 1995 when a budget stalemate resulted in a government shutdown, and today when another stalemate could put the government on the sidelines again:

This Democratic brinksmanship, though, may be based on the false assumption that a shutdown now would play out the way it did in 1995.

There are some major differences.

In 1995, Republicans controlled the House and the Senate, as opposed to the divided Congress of today. The GOP has only a third of the decision-making power in this scenario, making it much harder to pin the blame on them.

The personalities are different, too. Just as Obama lacks the political skills of Bill Clinton when it comes to making his case to the electorate, Boehner is a more sympathetic figure than Gingrich. Gingrich famously took a pounding for telling reporters that his decision to take the battle to the brink was partly due to Clinton forcing the speaker to ride in the back of Air Force One. Low-key Boehner would make a less-effective foil for Democrats.

There’s also the media environment. In many ways, 1995 was the last year of the old media world. It was the year before the launch of FOX News and the year before the Internet exploded into American life. The three broadcast television networks and the major newspapers still had a stranglehold on political news in 1995. Shaping the public narrative would be much harder for Democrats in today’s more diffuse and more balanced media world.

Then there’s the public’s attitude on government spending. Polls consistently show that government spending and deficits are the top concerns for about a quarter of voters. Only the economy is of concern to a great share of the electorate.

In 1995, debt and spending were bottom-tier issues in most polls. That makes some sense. In 1995, the federal government was $4.97 trillion in debt. Today, it’s more than $14 trillion in the hole, a sum equal to the size of our entire economy. It is hard to imagine that protesters would not flock to Washington in support of a shutdown if Obama and Reid tried to brush back Boehner on cuts.

A divided Congress, a mild-mannered Republican speaker, a competitive media environment and growing public concern over debt all add up to a tougher environment for Democrats to profit politically from a shutdown.

I hear loons like Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Chuckie Schumer, etc. making dire predictions about the political results of a government shutdown, but they totally misread the electorate in 2010 and I don't think they're any smarter today. A government shutdown is not seen as being that much of a threat to an electorate who just threw the big spenders out of power and explicitly supported smaller government. Should a shutdown occur, the GOP will be is a pretty good position with the majority of Americans.