HolyCoast: There's Another Big One Lurking Out There
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Sunday, March 13, 2011

There's Another Big One Lurking Out There

Australian seismologists are warning of a big earthquake yet to come for Japan:
NORTH-EASTERN Japan can expect another monster earthquake large enough to trigger a tsunami within days, the head of the Australian Seismological Centre says.

The director, Kevin McCue, said there had been more than 100 smaller quakes since Friday, but a larger aftershock was likely.

''Normally they happen within days,'' he said. ''The rule of thumb is that you would expect the main aftershock to be one magnitude smaller than the main shock, so you would be expecting a 7.9.

Advertisement: Story continues below ''That's a monster again in its own right that is capable of producing a tsunami and more damage.''
Back during my banking days, as part of my job as Director of Security for the bank, I taught earthquake preparedness as part of a safety course. I learned a few things about earthquakes along the way, including the fact that in a particular earthquake sequence only about half the energy release occurs during the main shock. The other half is distributed among the many aftershocks, and in each sequence you can usually count on one aftershock being 1 magnitude smaller than the main shock. Since the main shock was an 8.9, a 7.9 aftershock is not out of the question.

If that happens I'm not sure the tsunami that follows will be as dramatic as the first one, but areas already devastated and full of rescue workers could get hit again thus making a terrible disaster even worse.

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