I Don't Think Trump is Going to Run

Although The Donald is running to every camera and microphone he can find to hint at a presidential campaign, I don't think he'll pull the trigger on an actual campaign.  He simply has too much to lose to get involved in a lengthy campaign.

For one thing, his business interests would have to be handed off to someone else, and he hasn't shown himself to be the type of guy who likes giving control to other people.  Secondly, as the head of Trump Co. he has power to make decisions and move the company in ways he'll never be able to move the government.  I think he realizes that and knows how frustrating it would ultimately be.

And Trump is no dummy.  He'll have polling groups checking his numbers and he'll quickly discover that although the media may be in love with him...temporarily...he ultimately would not be successful against Obama.  The moment he was nominated by the GOP (assuming he could win) the media would abandon him for Obama, much like they did with John McCain in 2008.  All those media cheerleaders who praised Sen. Maverick headed for the hills once he became the nominee.

Speaking of the GOP nomination, don't think for a minute that Trump would be a lock for that.  Although he's talking a conservative game now, his past suggests he's whatever works best in that environment, from liberal to moderate to conservative.  His current conservatism is likely just a phase he's going through, and once it no long satisfies his purposes, he'll wander away.  I guarantee the GOP establishment is already digging up every example they can find to use against him.

Donald is an unabashed publicity hound and by making all this noise now he sets himself up as the go-to guy during the campaign for the media when they're looking for a good sound bite to use again any of the candidates.  Donald will be a free-fire zone against both sides.  He'll get his ego stroked, and even though few if any of his ideas will end up in government, he'll feel like he accomplished something.

Having said all that, I don't doubt for a minute that Trump loves this country and wants to see it work better.  However, it's unlikely that he'll be a consistent conservative should he be given the reigns of power.  Just look at another New Yorker - Michael Bloomberg.  Bloomberg became a Republican because he didn't want to have to compete in the Dem primary.  After election he governed like the liberal he really is and eventually even left the GOP and became an independent.  I don't think Trump is as far left as Bloomberg, but who really knows?

I don't think Trump will run.  If he does, I'll be wrong and we'll be in for a campaign like nothing we've ever seen.