Maybe Willie Brown Has Been Reading My Stuff

Willie Brown is the former Speaker of the California Assembly and former Mayor of San Francisco, and is considered somewhat of a political guru. He's making some news with a prediction that Joe Biden might be moved to Secretary of State to replace Hillary Clinton and make way for a younger VP with less baggage...something I suggested in January of 2010. Here's the Brown story:

Brown, who writes a well-read column for the San Francisco Examiner, was touching on widespread speculation that Vice President Joe Biden is not exactly an asset and might be dumped from his post by an increasingly nervous and poll-challenged President Obama when he declared:

“Here’s a prediction: Vice President Biden moves over to secretary of state, with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo stepping in to bring new blood to the Obama re-election campaign.

“He’s a big name, a big-state governor. And a Democrat who is taking on the issue of pubic-employee salaries and pensions. Plus, he looks good,” Brown wrote.

A source close to Cuomo said the governor was flattered by Brown’s observations, “especially his saying that he looks good,” but insisted the governor had no plans other than to work hard during the 3½ years remaining in his term.

“The governor is committed to working for the people of New York and is not going anywhere,” said the source.

And here's what I wrote on January 5, 2010:

Should Obama and the Dems continue to slide, and especially if the Dems take a bloodbath in November, I look for Hillary to resign the Secretary of State's job sometime in early 2011. Nobody will believe she wants to "spend more time with her family" so she'll have to come up with another excuse. In reality, she'll be setting the table for a primary challenge to Obama in 2012.

And she'll be very popular. She barely lost the nomination in 2008 and given Obama's performance and her work as Secretary of State, her star probably shines brighter today than ever. For one thing, she hasn't been in the news all that much and we haven't had to listen to her. That's gotta help.

So, with Hillary out of the Secretary of State's office, who will Obama choose to replace her? Here's where the scenario becomes even more interesting - Joe Biden. Biden's many years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will be cited as the main reason to move him to SoS, though the real reason will have more to do with the fact that Biden will be a drag on the 2012 ticket. He's not seen as a viable future candidate for 2016 and frankly people are a little bit afraid that something will happen to Obama and we'll get stuck with President Biden.

This will give Obama and his political crew the opportunity to choose his potential successor, someone younger and more attractive as a 2016 candidate. Confirmation could be a bit problematic should the GOP pick up a bunch of Senate seats this year, but I don't know if they will have the stomach to filibuster a vice presidential nominee.

There's more at the post.

I don't think Cuomo would be a particularly good match for Obama. He's got some baggage of his own, and his presence on the ticket is not going to result in any electoral gains for Obama. Obama will win New York anyway, and having a New Yorker on the ticket could actually hurt in many parts of the country.

However, I do believe the Joe Biden to Secretary of State switch is very likely. Biden will not help Obama in 2012.

And I still think Hillary might be lurking out there to see if a 2012 challenge to Obama will be doable.