Playing Political Chicken

At this point my money's on a government shutdown.  I think that's what Obama really wants and his instructions to the Dems in Congress is to fight the GOP until it happens.

Republicans and Democrats have spent months laying the groundwork for this moment: both parties at seemingly irreconcilable differences and a government shutdown looming.

The arguments from each have created a political blame universe forming the logic of who wins and loses if the talks fail.

But as it comes down to the final stretch, who will blink? Will Republican House Speaker John Boehner leave the right wing flank of his caucus behind, securing a deal with Democratic votes? Or will President Obama, for instance, sell out environmentalists on strict EPA climate change regulations, or pressure Senate Democrats to back more significant cuts?

Or, as the two parties careen towards each other in the ultimate game of political chicken, will neither flinch, resulting in a cataclysmic shutdown crash that damages both parties, even if one more than the other?

The Republicans argue they passed a spending bill all the way back on Feb. 19, only to watch the Senate dawdle since then.

The Democrats argue they’re supporting spending cuts over half of what Republicans proposed, $33 billion to their $61 billion.

Republicans say the final deal must include at least some of the policy riders in their bill, a long list that includes defunding Obamacare, a slew of strict EPA regulations, Planned Parenthood and National Public Radio, among others.

Democrats say most of those are non-starters, and that a six-month spending bill isn’t the vehicle for a broad ideological battle.

Obama and the Dems are stuck in 1995. They think the political landscape today is the same as it was then and a shutdown will be fatal to the GOP.

They're wrong. Most Americans outside the Beltway will not even realize a shutdown has taken place, except for the whining they'll hear on their network newscasts. However, there are sources of information for the average American today that weren't available in 1995.

Back then I had just gotten my first email account with America Online, and had barely even learned what the internet was. Rush Limbaugh was becoming a force, but there weren't a lot of other talk show carrying the same message. Today there's are millions of blogs, news sites, radio shows, and other ways Americans can find out the truth of what a shutdown really means. The government won't stop - it will barely slow down.

To my surprise one of the local news stations did a report on a potential shutdown and what it might mean to the Los Angeles area. The expert they interviewed confirmed that for citizens of Los Angeles a shutdown would be almost completely invisible. Unless you're planning a visit to a national park, you'll never know the government's budget authority has expired.

If this is the game Obama wants to play, let's play.