Playing the Role of Ross Perot - The Donald

Ever since Donald Trump started making noise about running for president I've commented that he could end up the Ross Perot of 2012 - the business magnate whose independent candidacy guarantees a win for Obama as Perot did for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 (I made that connection back on March 8).  This article seems to make that more likely:

Donald Trump will “probably” run as an independent candidate for U.S. President in 2012 if he does not receive the Republican party’s nomination, he told the Wall Street Journal in a video interview on Monday.

“I hate what’s happening to the country,” said Mr. Trump, a real estate tycoon and host of the NBC show “Celebrity Apprentice.” He will not formally make a decision until June, however, when this season of his television show is over. “I can’t run during the airing of that show,” Mr. Trump said, “I’m not allowed to.” But he said he would make an announcement “by June” and his candidacy looks increasingly likely.

Mr. Trump’s candidacy would complicate matters for the GOP as it looks to front someone who can unite the fractious party and mount a serious challenge to President Obama’s reelection bid. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll recently found Mr. Trump tied for second place with former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee among likely voters in a GOP primary. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who moved a step closer to formally declaring his own candidacy Monday, is still the frontrunner, though not by a wide margin.

“I think the Republicans are very concerned that I [may] run as an independent,” Mr. Trump said. His support is highest among the conservative wing of the party, not least because he is among the so-called “birthers” who doubt that President Obama in fact was born in the U.S. “It’s a very important issue,” Mr. Trump said of demanding that President Obama show his birth certificate, which has separately been reviewed by the media and deemed legitimate. “I’m not ashamed of having raised that issue.”

“I am very conservative,” said Mr. Trump. “The concern is if I don’t win [the GOP primary] will I run as an independent, and I think the answer is probably yes.” Mr. Trump said he thought he “could possibly win as an independent,” adding, “I’m not doing it for any other reason. I like winning.”

Ross Perot never attempted to win the GOP nomination since doing so in 1992 would have required him to knock off a sitting president. He was an independent from the start, and I have to admit that for a couple of months I was a fan. I was one of those Republicans angry at George H.W. Bush for caving on his "no new taxes" pledge and I saw in Perot a guy who might actually be able to fix stuff.

Then Perot started acting crazy and that put and end to my support. However, an unfortunate number of people continued to support him in both 1992 and 1996 and the votes he got, though not enough to win any states, were enough to swing some states away from Bush and Dole and give Clinton two victories. Clinton never got a majority of the votes in either election.

Trump has the advantage of not running against a sitting Republican president and therefore has the same opportunity as everyone else to win the GOP nomination.  However, threatening to run as an independent tells me he'd rather see Obama win if the GOP rejects him, and that's a big concern.  An independent conservative candidacy from Trump will only draw votes from the GOP nominee and hand the election to Obama.

Trump has some good ideas.  If you read the rest of the linked article there's a lot to like about his approach to foreign policy.  Given the lackluster GOP field, barring a Perot-like descent into craziness Trump could win the nomination.  I have to admit, a Trump-Obama race would probably be far more entertaining than Romney-Obama or Huckabee-Obama.  As the GOP nominee Trump just might make a race out of it in a way other GOP nominees might not.

But as an independent candidate he gives the win to Obama.