There is little question that this long-awaited event will hit a reset button in terms of day-to-day or even week-to-week politics, changing for a time the zeitgeist.Obama gave a good speech at the Tuscon memorial service in January, but the impact of that speech was incredibly shortlived. I think the killing of Osama bin Laden will be a long-lasting credit for Obama, but not one that will be an election game-changer. People will still be buying gasoline, milk, groceries, and everything else that's being hammered by the current economic situation. Although Cook hesitates to blame Obama for high gas prices, there's no question that his policies curbing oil exploration in the Gulf and in Alaska, plus a general attitude against exploring anywhere in our own lands or waters is contributing to the perception that oil supplies are not likely to increase while he's in office.
Democrats will fervently hope that the public will see this as a seminal moment in which people begin to see and appreciate President Obama in a new light, much as President Bill Clinton’s speech after the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, in retrospect, was a turning point for his presidency.
But it might be a mistake to assume that it is a more enduring game-changer in terms of the politics of 2012 or that it will recast Obama as much as it did for Clinton.
Unlike last year, the country was not facing stubbornly high unemployment coming out of an anemic recovery, and gasoline prices were not close to $4 per gallon.
The challenges of 1995 were very different; the headwinds Obama is facing are more formidable and largely outside of his control.
The numbers of long-term unemployed are troubling. The enormous growth in demand for energy, particularly oil and gasoline in China, India, and other emerging economies threatens to keep energy prices unstable. Add to that the political instability in the Middle East and North Africa, which are trouble spots from energy, security, and humanitarian perspectives.
But for Obama and Democrats, this is a B-12 shot in the arm, or adrenaline, a great rush and a welcomed respite. But it’s not a cure.
UPDATE: Rasmussen reports no initial bounce for Obama. I expect there to be at least a small one.
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