Another Rudy Run?

Bill Kristol thinks Rudy Giuliani is going to get in the presidential contest:

I'm told by two reliable sources that Rudy Giuliani intends to run for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. He may throw his hat in the ring soon.

Rudy's theory of the race: In the fall of 2007, he decided he couldn't compete with both Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire, and disastrously decided to try to pull back there and pitch his tent in Florida. This year, he'll commit everything to New Hampshire, where he thinks he has a good shot at beating Romney—whom he criticized there earlier this week. He then thinks he can beat whichever more socially conservative candidate(s) is left by winning what are still likely to be winner-take-all primaries in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey.

Rudy's message: I'm tough enough to put our fiscal house in order and to protect us from enemies abroad. The U.S. in 2012 is in bad shape—like New York in 1993. The budget crisis is as severe—and seemingly intractable—as the crime/welfare crisis was in New York then. Rudy dealt with that when people said it couldn't be done. He'll deal with this.

Isn't his abysmal 2008 campaign a disqualifier? Rudy's answer: Consider the New York parallel. Rudy lost to David Dinkins in 1989, making several unforced errors and running without a focused message. In 1993, as the streets of New York plunged into crisis, Rudy ran a disciplined campaign pledging to turn the city around. He won, and in a disciplined first term, he governed successfully.

It seems implausible that Rudy Giuliani could win the nomination. But it's an implausible year.

I was a fan of Rudy's in 2008 (or at least as long as he lasted) after Fred Thompson backed out. At this point, should Rudy get in he'd probably be my favorite. If Rick Perry gets in I may have to rethink that.

Anyone who watched what Rudy did in New York City both before and after 9/11 has to be impressed with his leadership skills. Yes, he's not a social conservative, but many of the issues important to social conservatives are things the president can do nothing about (gay marriage, abortion, etc.). We need a leader to restore not just the respect, but the fear the bad guys in the world used to have for America. We also need someone who can clean up the budget mess.

Just looking at one small part of New York City, when Rudy became Mayor Times Square was a festering pit of porn shops and other seedy activities. It was a scary place to be. Rudy cleaned up the area and now it's one of the safest and most tourist-friendly areas of the city (I was there four years ago and had absolutely no fear in walking around the area at 11pm on a Saturday night). He went after the small problems and in so doing cleaned up the big ones as a result.  I think he could be an attractive alternate to the GOP field in play so far.