Tornado Warning Fatigue

One Alabama weather broadcaster thinks so:

In the wake of the April 27 tornadoes, veteran television meteorologist James Spann is questioning whether too frequent tornado warnings are causing people to ignore them.

"I firmly believe apathy and complacency due to a high false alarm ratio over the years led to inaction in many cases that could have cost lives," Spann wrote in a wide-ranging blog post that has generated debate among weather watchers and fellow meteorologists.

In the post, the ABC 33/40 meteorologist criticizes what he considers a high false alarm rate by the National Weather Service in issuing tornado warnings, questions the utility of the siren alert system, and raises questions about practices in TV broadcasting.

In an interview, Spann said he didn't intend to place blame, and effusively praised the NWS's performance on April 27. But Spann said he believes the issues need to be aired.

"There is no reason that so many people had to die that day. I am trying to stimulate discussion," Spann said.

With the advent of Doppler radar and other technological advances, the NWS has been driving up the number of tornadoes it detects and warns for, particularly weaker tornadoes.

According to an analysis by meteorologist Tim Coleman, a researcher at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, tornado warnings from a group of NWS offices in the Southeast averaged fewer than 100 warnings a year in the late 1980s, but in recent years the average has risen to almost 800.

At the same time, the NWS has made only a modest improvement in its rate of false alarms, according to the National Severe Storms Lab in Norman, Okla.

In the late 1980s, according to the storm lab, the false alarm rate was about 80 percent, meaning that for every 10 warnings issued only about two turned out to be tornadoes. According to the most recent data available, the false alarm rate is down to 76 percent.

One of the "facts" that the global warming crowd often throws out is that we're seeing more tornadoes today so it must be global warming. In fact, we're seeing more tornadoes because our technology has improved to the point that we can see potential rotation forming in the storm clouds well before it descends to the ground.  We can also spot tornadoes in remote areas that would have gone undetected in years past.  Many of those rotating storms never produce anything, but because of the fear of litigation should someone get hit by a tornado without being warned, warnings are issued for any situation in which a tornado signature is shown on the radar.

It's true there is some "tornado warning fatique" among residents in tornado-prone areas. I remember seeing an interview with a guy who nearly walked out of a convenience store in Joplin and right into the tornado because he didn't believe the sirens really meant anything. But as long as we have lawyers ready to sue if the National Weather Service doesn't issue a warning, they'll probably continue to issue warnings with every potential tornado just to be safe and legally prudent.

By the way, Tornado Alley should stay on their toes this weekend.  Looks like another outbreak could be likely for June 19/20.