HolyCoast: Chapman University: Obama Will Lose by 8.1%

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Chapman University: Obama Will Lose by 8.1%

Let's hope their numbers pan out:
Chapman University’s economics brain trust has run a formula they say predicts presidential winners – and it shows the Republican will win next year, regardless of the nominee....

Chapman’s formula, developed at the Orange school’s Anderson Center for Economic Research, works out to predict every presidential election winner but one, dating back to 1944. The exception was picking Richard Nixon to beat John F. Kennedy in 1960. It accurately picked Al Gore to win the popular vote in 2000, although George W. Bush won via the Electoral College.

Chapman’s model, which takes into account party but not the candidates, is based on three variables:

  • Approval rating of the incumbent party’s sitting president on year prior to the election.
  • Percentage change in real GDP in the election year.
  • Percentage change in employment in the election year.
Chapman predicts 2.3 percent GDP growth next year and 1.1 percent job growth.

All that adds up to Obama losing by 8.1 percent.
I'm not sure Chapman got 1960 wrong, though officially they did. If it hadn't been for all the dead people voting in Chicago Nixon would have won that election. That tells me the Chapman model is pretty good.

1 comment:

Nightingale said...

Voter fraud is precisely what worries me in the upcoming presidential election. Obama seems too calm, like he knows the fix is already in.