HolyCoast: Ron Paul May Win Iowa, but So What?

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Ron Paul May Win Iowa, but So What?

It won't translate into some kind of national mandate:
There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.

Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

Paul, meanwhile, has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul's strength in Iowa and Barack Obama's in 2008- he's doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters.
I guarantee you if Paul wins Iowa his "Paul Bearer" supporters will become so overbearing they'll pretty much kill his campaign everywhere else with their annoying antics. Ron Paul will not be the nominee, let along president.

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