HolyCoast: A Tie Goes to the House

Thursday, December 15, 2011

A Tie Goes to the House

True in some forms of gambling and also in Electoral Votes, and there is a possibility that next year's election could result in such a tie:
President Obama's political advisers laid out various pathways to 270-or-more electoral votes at a briefing on Tuesday, some which seemed more realistic than others.

One optimistic scenario they didn't explore, but which seems quite plausible, is the possibility of a 269-269 electoral vote tie. That would happen if Obama carried all the Kerry states except New Hampshire (where he's struggling), and added New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia to his column. The Republican nominee would carry the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina.

It's not an unrealistic outcome, given the campaign's relative strength with white-collar, college-educated voters. Colorado and Virginia have a disproportionately high number of those voters and those states are pivotal to his re-election hopes. They're also performing relatively well economically: Virginia's unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the country (6.4 percent) and Colorado's 8.1 percent rate is below the national average. Nevada (13.4 percent), Florida (10.3 percent) North Carolina (10.4 percent), and Ohio (9.0 percent) have among the highest unemployment rates in the country.

So combine demography with the economy and it's not that outlandish to see an electoral vote tie. What happens then? The election would be decided in the U.S. House of Representatives, currently controlled by the GOP. Sound like a long-shot? Yes. But lots of unexpected outcomes have already occurred in this unpredictable 2012 election.
I'd hate for it to be that close, because it would make for a scary election night and given the level of voter fraud we can expect from Democrats, I wouldn't want to take that risk. But on the other hand, can you imagine how much fun it would be to have election night end in a tie knowing the election would then be settled by Speaker John Boehner and the majority-Republican House of Representatives?

It's not as simple as a straight up vote of the members.  In this vote each state would have only one vote.  The entire state delegation would vote as one person.  That scenario still favors the GOP.

However, the Senate would choose the VP with each Senator having one vote.  We could get VP Biden for another four years even if the GOP wins the presidency.  Wouldn't that be odd....

The whole thing would be even more entertaining should Obama win the popular vote. The wailing and gnashing of teeth on the left would be something to see.

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