HolyCoast: Unemployment Will Stay Above 8% For 2012, Over 9% in 2013

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Unemployment Will Stay Above 8% For 2012, Over 9% in 2013

From Mark Knoller:
New projections from Congressional Budget Office this morning: national unemployment rate stays above 8% this year & next.

CBO projects unemployment decline "to around 7 percent by the end of 2015, before dropping to near 5½ percent by the end of 2017."
And from Jim Pethokoukis:
Recovery, RIP | CBO: Unemployment will average 8.8% in 2012, 9.1% in 2013; GDP will average 2.2% this year, 1.0% in 2013

Key CBO conclusion: Only 1/3 of the decline in labor force participation rate is due to demographics. The rest due to downturn
And from MelissaTweets:
We have a profound unemployment crisis, massive debt, and no leadership. Why would consumers lack confidence?
No president has ever been reelected with unemployment above 7.2%, but that doesn't mean the GOP can't screw it up enough that Obama can win even with 8%+ unemployment rates.

And don't underestimate Obama's ability to discourage enough workers to leave the job force and cause the unemployment rate to drop further than expected.

The CBO's projections can be found here.


Michael Rivero said...

Try 32% over!

The official jobless rate is a calculated fiction subject to election-year wishful thinking. The official jobless figure is calculated from people just now filing for unemployment and people still receiving such benefits and looking for work. But it does not include the 86 million Americans who have been looking for work so long they have exhausted all possible benefits. These are America's "invisible" unemployed, ignored as a major political embarrassment.

The US government admits to there being 12.5 million "visible" unemployed, which together with the invisible means 94.5 million Americans are available to work but do not have a job. Total US population is 330 million. But 24% of those are young people not eligible to work. And 13 percent are retired. So the total population of available workers in the United States is 100% - (24% + 13%) = 63% of 330 million people, or 207 million workers. And with 94.5 million workers not working, the true jobless rate in the US right now is 45%, not the 8% the media keeps propagandizing you about.

Anonymous said...

Same in canada--If you BeLIEve in government statstics--you been had royally