Though the legalities are a bit more complicated, there are three basic outcomes possible: The law is upheld; the law is fully overturned; or the law is partially overturned.I'm willing to take that chance. Obamacare has got to go, and we have got to have some limits somewhere on the power of government.
If the law is upheld as constitutional, it would be an utter disaster for advocates of small government. If Congress can force Americans to purchase a product they do not want, it would mean that there are effectively no limits on congressional power.
But as much as it would be an affront to individual liberty, it would probably be a big boost to Republicans in both the presidential and congressional elections.
Though, on the one hand, Obama would get to claim vindication if the Supreme Court upheld the law, the backlash against the verdict would be fierce, not only among conservatives, but among independents who overwhelmingly oppose the law's requirement that individuals purchase health insurance.
It would mean that the only remaining chance of repealing the health care law would be to elect a Republican president and as many Republicans to the House and Senate as possible.
If the Supreme Court strikes down the entire law, it would be a joyous occasion for conservatives. And it would be a powerful indictment of Obama -- that he spent more than a year of his presidency pushing through a law that turned out to be unconstitutional.
But at the same time, it could have the opposite effect on voter enthusiasm. If Obamacare is struck down it would be one less thing to motivate conservatives who are turned off by the Republican nominee, or disillusioned with Republicans in general. And no doubt, it could energize liberals, who will spin a decision striking down the law as coming from a "conservative activist court."
Friday, February 24, 2012
Philip Klein takes a look at the different scenarios at work in the election once the Obamacare ruling comes down from the Supreme Court: