HolyCoast: Dems Plan Their Convention in a State They're Likely to Lose

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Dems Plan Their Convention in a State They're Likely to Lose

It was an aberration when the home of NASCAR went for a Democrat president in 2008.  It's not going to happen again in 2012, but the Dems will be holding their convention there (from Morning Jolt):
Democrats Have a Char-Lotte of Trouble in North Carolina


In Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg thinks the Democrats may regret their choice of convention city:

If national Democratic strategists chose Charlotte, N.C., for the party's national convention because they liked the facilities, the hotel accommodations or the weather in early September, then I guess I can't yet quibble with the choice.

But if David Axelrod and the president's other political advisers picked the Tar Heel State to make some broader political point, then they goofed.

Simply put: North Carolina looks like a mess for Democrats.

The state's Democratic governor, Beverly Perdue, is so unpopular -- her job approval has been fluctuating from 30 percent to 40 percent for months -- that she wisely decided not to seek re-election this year. A recent survey by Public Policy Polling, a Raleigh-based Democratic polling firm, showed only 60 percent of Democrats approve of the job the governor is doing. . . .

Democrats will lose three or four Congressional seats in November, victims of Republican redistricting made possible by the national GOP wave of 2010, which gave both chambers of the state Legislature to Republicans. (In an ironic twist, the governor of North Carolina had no role in the redistricting process.)

But it gets worse.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, North Carolina's preliminary unemployment rate for March stood at 9.7 percent, lower than only three states (California, Rhode Island and Nevada) and the District of Columbia. Apparently, the Obama administration's jobs recovery has not shifted into high gear in the Tar Heel State.

Of course, if the state's economy is a mess, it's still in better shape than the North Carolina Democratic Party.

Two weeks ago, the state party's executive director, Jay Parmley, resigned amid accusations of sexual harassment. North Carolina Democratic Party Chairman David Parker, who accepted Parmley's resignation but seemed to defend him, has also come under fire. Some Democratic activists are now demanding his resignation.

Rothenberg concludes:

For months, I've been including the Tar Heel State in my list of swing territory. I think I've been wrong to do so, no matter what current polling shows.

Unless the president wins re-election nationally by 7 or 8 points (or about what he did in 2008), his chances of carrying the state are not very good. And if he wins nationally by a large margin, he won't need North Carolina.
Obama won North Carolina by three-tenths of a point four years ago -- almost 7 points worse than his national margin of 7.2 points.
I don't think Obama is going to win the national vote at all, but if he does it will be by a slight margin and he'll still lose the Electoral College. Wouldn't that be entertaining....

1 comment:

Sam L. said...

A smile on my face at the thought...