"I'd Rather Be Romney Than Obama At This Stage"

Those are the words of political analyst Jay Cost who is looking at the numbers:

One of the best political analysts in the country thinks that Mitt Romney‘s odds of winning the presidency are pretty good.

“My read of the polls suggests that [President] Obama is struggling to move much beyond 40 percent of the independent vote, which is really the only bloc of the electorate that is up for grabs,” Jay Cost, who writes a twice-weekly column for The Weekly Standard, told The Daily Caller.

“Nobody can win the presidency if they lose the independent vote by 10 to 20 points, which is where I reckon things are headed. Things could change of course, but I’d much rather be Romney than Obama at this stage.”...

As for November’s election, Cost says that “as usual,” the race will likely come down to Florida and Ohio, but the GOP shouldn’t discount the possibility of flipping Pennsylvania.

“If either Romney or Obama carry both, they will likely win the whole election,” he said. “Pennsylvania is going to be a battle ground this year too, as will New Hampshire.”

Obama is going to have trouble in both Ohio and Florida. Republicans swept to power in Ohio in 2010 and held onto control in Florida. Ohio has been hit hard by the Obama economy and another four years of that isn't going to play well. Obama won both states with only 51% of the vote in 2008, back when he was still The Lightbringer and not The Despairbringer. He's not going to do that well this year.

Pennsylvania will be a tougher play, but the GOP picked up a bunch of seats there in 2010 too.  It's not out of the question that Romney could have a narrow win there in a year in which voters are rejecting liberal policies.