I don't want to spend too much time on this -- if for no other reason than it's lunchtime -- but here's a pre-post-mortem on the whole sorry recall election situation. What happened here was the accumulated karmic backlash of forty years' worth of Establishment Democrats telling the Activist Left that they were the vanguard of, and spokesmen for, a broad American populist movement. For the longest time, such lies were simply an accepted part of the public policy debate; mostly because the country had no yardstick by which to judge the Left's turnout and activities.Current polling has Walker up 5-8%. One organization, We Ask America, did an automated poll that showed Walker up 12%. The most interesting thing about that poll to me was the subset of public union households in which Walker was only losing by 3%. We're supposed to believe that Walker is the devil when it comes to public unions and yet he was almost break even in that category. Could it be that many rank-and-file public union members still have jobs today because of Walker's reforms and they're planning to reward him for that on June 5th? I think so.
But then came the Tea Parties -- which showed people what a real American populist movement looks like, and what it can do -- and its success stung the Activist Left at the exact moment that Scott Walker came along and not unreasonably decided that if he was elected on a platform of doing certain things, he had best start doing them. This infuriated the Left, but not as much as the refusal of Walker and the WI GOP to go weak-kneed at the first sign of push-back. So... the recall movement was born!
And... fizzled. The Left should have cut their losses when Prosser demonstrated that drum circles and illegal indoor camping in the Rotunda didn't translate into votes... and they definitely should have cut their losses when the first wave of recalls didn't live up to the hype. But they didn't, and now the people of Wisconsin are increasingly demonstrating that they're tired of all of this - and they're not blaming the Republicans, either. Such a shame, but that's what you get whe- hey! The bacon's fully cooked.
Kind of metaphorical there, really.
My guess is the race won't be that close. Walker's supporters will show up in large numbers, but the left, disillusioned by the sure loss that's coming, will probably just stay home. I think Walker will probably win by 10%.