GOP Senate Prospects Dim in '08

The GOP, needing only one seat to retake the majority in the Senate, is facing an uphill fight if they have any hope of succeeding. Sen. Larry "Wide Stance" Craig's activities and imminent departure won't hurt the party in Idaho, but could leave voters in other states casting a wary eye toward the GOP. Sen. John Warner's retirement certainly puts Virginia into play, and with many more seats to defend than the Dems (remember, 2002 was a very good year for GOP Republicans), the GOP could be in for a bad night next November:

A Senate electoral playing field that was already wide open for 2008 has become considerably more perilous for Republicans with the retirement of Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and the resignation of scandal-scarred Sen. Larry E. Craig (R-Idaho).

Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to take back control of the Senate, but they have 22 seats to defend, and campaign cash is conspicuously lacking. Warner's retirement raised to two the number of open Republican seats, and both of them -- in Virginia and Colorado -- are prime targets for Democrats.

With former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey possibly waiting in the wings, Republicans are anxiously watching to see whether Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) will retire. And two more Republican seats open for reelection -- in Wyoming and Idaho -- would be occupied by unelected appointees, John Barrasso and Craig's replacement.

"The state of the playing field looks very good, even in places where we didn't expect it to look good, even in deeply red states," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "Things could change, but if you did a snapshot, we're going to have a good year."

"It's always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker," said a GOP pollster who insisted on anonymity in order to speak candidly.

Senate GOP campaign funds are down, largely due to GOP senators who decided not to act like GOP senators and angered the base. It will hard to win those donors back (including me). On the other side, one fear quietly expressed by Dems is the effect Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket might do to down ballot races. Her negatives are so high that voters, fearing a Hillary win might decide that an opposition-led Senate and House might be a good thing to balance and thwart Clinton's plans. Her name on the ballot could actual offset some of the damage the GOP has suffered.

However, all this speculation is still way too early to mean much. With 14 months until the election there's plenty of room for circumstances to dramatically change.